Assessing the Impact of the 2022 Pakistan Floods

“The whole area looks like an ocean with no horizon – nothing like this has been seen before,” Sherry Rehman, Pakistan’s climate change minister, said, describing the floods that are wreaking havoc in Pakistan since June this year. Having submerged about a third of the country, the impact of the floods has been dire: with over 1700 people dead and 33 million people displaced, the numbers are expected to further rise as authorities have warned that it could take about six months for the flood water to recede. The floods are speculated to be caused by a concatenation of multiple factors, of which climate change is known to be one of the major factors. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), extreme rainfall is getting increasingly frequent and intense worldwide due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which can cause flooding.

In addition to bringing attention to the disastrous consequences of lack of climate action, the floods have also brought to the forefront issues of climate injustice as developing countries reel from crises they did not cause. In the case of Pakistan, despite contributing less than 1 % of global GHG emissions, it is the world’s eighth most vulnerable country to climate change.

Assessing the Impact of the Floods

The floods, described by UN Chief Antonio Guterres as a "climate carnage", have battered the country in many ways, the impact of which is briefly assessed below:

• Raging rainwater has swept away large swathes of land and infrastructure in Pakistan. For instance, 1.6 million houses, over 5000 km of transport links and 3500 km of roads have been damaged.

  

• It has crippled the agriculture sector as the floods have swamped farmlands. It is estimated that in the Sindh province, responsible for half of Pakistan’s food, about 90% of crops have been destroyed, causing food security challenges in the country. It is further likely to cause an increase in the prices of food as well.

• In addition, as agriculture contributes up to 23% of Pakistan's GDP, these losses are projected to have a dire impact on the country’s economy, with some assessments predicting that the economy will slow down significantly in the near to medium term. Estimates also indicate that it can cause inflation to shoot up to a range of 24-27 per cent and poverty and unemployment rates to over 36 per cent.

• Among other crops, huge amounts of cotton have also been destroyed, impacting the textile sector significantly. Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan’s Planning Minister, stated that 45% of the country’s cotton crops have been washed away, threatening to have serious economic consequences, considering that Pakistan is the world’s 4th largest cotton producer. Thus, as cotton-processing and textile industries constitute almost half of Pakistan’s manufacturing base, it is an important source of employment and foreign exchange for the country. The destruction of cotton crops is also likely to impact global clothing brands and retailers as it can cause shortages in supply and trigger price inflation.

• According to independent analysts, the economic losses caused by the floods are estimated to be between $15bn and $20bn. This threatens to further shake the already unstable economy, which is deeply entrenched in debt and has been facing high inflation and a balance of payment crisis.

• In addition, the spillover effect is also anticipated to be dire. “What will be harder to determine right now is the broader economic loss, such as through decrease in economic activity, knock-on effects on the cost of living. It will take months to determine these comprehensive losses,” said Shahrukh Wani, an economist at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford.

• New challenges to public health have also been emerging as receding waters have caused an outbreak of water-borne and vector-borne diseases. WHO Pakistan tweeted on this issue: "Major health concerns already reported the spread of diarrheal diseases, skin and eye infections, acute respiratory infections, malaria. Crops and livestock have been lost, posing a serious threat to the nutrition of afflicted communities”. The problem is further exacerbated as over 1400 health facilities have been damaged in the country.

• Further, it threatens to cause social unrest, posing a threat to peace and stability in the country. For instance, protests broke out in the city of Sukkur after a six-year-old child reportedly died due to starvation and illness in a shelter.

Importance of Data in Developing Mitigation Strategies

As climate-induced disasters of such catastrophic scale become increasingly common, the need to assess climate risks has become crucial. Flood modelling is an important tool that enables flood risk management. By actively monitoring rivers, lakes and glaciers, it helps forecast floods, aiding authorities in advancing climate change adaptation efforts and developing risk mitigation strategies. Inundation scenarios developed on computers can also help different stakeholders anticipate the outcomes of floods and manage risks accordingly. In addition, even after floods strike, data on inundation levels can help relevant agencies and organizations in damage estimation and rehabilitation efforts.

However, recent studies have revealed the lacunae in the current flood models, the major limitations of which lie in the lack of reliable, quality data. This is an important factor as the quality of data determines the efficacy of climate models. Incomplete data makes flood models unreliable, which can derail mitigation strategies, impacting public safety and financial planning. Some of the key characteristics for effective flood modelling with regard to data are:

• High-frequency data: Climate modelling without high-frequency data has very limited utility. For instance, data gathered a few times a year cannot paint a clear picture of climate risks. High-frequency data is important to gain better insights and enables higher statistical precision in climate modelling.

• High resolution: High-resolution data is important for better mapping and monitoring of climate systems. It also helps in better quantification of vital factors such as the change in land cover. At present, most climate models are of a global scale and have to be scaled down significantly to get regional insights, which compromises the resolution.

• Near real-time data: Near real-time data allows continuous monitoring, which is helpful in identifying trends, establishing parameters, trigger levels and real quantification of risks and probabilities. Moreover, it is an important factor in developing prediction sets. Currently, climate models draw vast insights from historical data that is no longer sufficient. As climate change is driving new weather patterns, relying only on historical data reduces the model's accuracy. In addition, historical models have limitations. For example, documentation has been poor in many parts of the world, and government agencies in most countries began collecting data only towards the end of the last century.

• Wide-scope: Climate models must have a broad scope that looks at the earth as one system. Monitoring a single variable does not provide an overall understanding of the climate crisis, as most climate phenomena are interlinked. All the essential variables need to be assessed for a holistic understanding of our planetary systems.

While climate models will always be marked by a certain amount of inaccuracy, these factors can improve the quality of data which can further improve predictions essential to undertake timely action that can minimize losses.

Conclusion

The floods in Pakistan are one of many disasters around the world today. From wildfires in Spain, droughts in China, tornadoes in the US and heatwaves in Africa, these climate-induced disasters are mere precursors to the impending climate apocalypse that threatens human civilization unless serious climate action is undertaken. In this regard, reliable climate models, ensured by credible data, have a huge role as they can help us understand climate risks, develop mitigation strategies accordingly and ramp up preparedness.